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Public Information Statement

Statement as of 1:00 PM PDT on May 22, 2015


... El Nino growing stronger...

The National weather services climate prediction center (cpc) issued
a couple of key releases last week regarding the evolution of El
Nino. El Nino is gaining strength.

Here are two presentations that highlight the current status and
outlook on el ninos evolution through at least the rest of this
year. (Disclaimer - mid year evolution of El Nino southern
oscillation (enso) tends to vary widely and the key trend for the
coming winter begins to show more clearly by September.)

Yet the trend of late is enough to ensure everyone is aware of this
situation as we move through this Summer and into this winter.

Below are the two presentations updated this past week by the CPC.
There is a lot of science in them. The bottom line is El Nino is
gaining strength and looks to be in place into this coming winter.

Enso diagnostics discussion

Http://www.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.Gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_adviso
ry/ensodisc.Pdf

Latest weekly enso status... evolution and prediction presentation

Http://www.CPC.NCEP/NOAA.Gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso
_evolution-status-fcsts-web.Pdf

The latest CPC seasonal outlook for Washington state issued
yesterday continues to show good odds on warmer than average
temperatures and tipping the odds to drier than normal conditions
this Summer and into this winter. If these trends hold true... this
outlook is not good news for the wildfire season statewide and then
a good likelihood of another lower than average mountain snowpack
this coming winter.

The National Weather Service Seattle drought information statement
issued this morning highlights some key elements. Much of the lower
and mid Elevation Mountain snow pack has already melted. April
through mid may precipitation has been much below average. River
stream flows are well below normal. Washington governor Jay inslee
recently extended the drought declaration to all of the state. See
http://www.Wrh.NOAA.Gov/sew/Hydro/seadgtsew for the complete drought
statement.

Unless much wetter weather develops soon... the entire state will
have a much higher risk for wildfires. Everyone needs to be careful
regarding any burning materials or fireworks out of doors this
season. If the warmer and drier outlook for this winter develops...
then water supplies may be more limited heading into the Summer of
2016 along with a heightened wildfire threat.

Buehner/bower






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